Mandeville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS64 KLIX 252349
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
649 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Low pressure/inverted trough continuing to move westward over the
Gulf, currently southwest of Morgan City. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving northwestward with most near and north of
the Interstate 10/12 corridors. Certainly still potential for
areas south of that, but not imminent. A little more wind than has
been the case the last several days, with winds around 15 mph and
gusts to around 25 mph. Temperatures away from precipitation
running from mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values near 105
degrees in the hotter spots.

Trough will move to the Texas coast by Saturday morning as an
upper ridge moves westward. By Saturday morning, the ridge will be
centered over South Carolina, and by Sunday morning over Georgia.
Precipitable water values will drop a bit to 2.1 inches by
tomorrow, which should lead to somewhat less instantaneous areal
coverage of showers and storms, but the 12 hour PoP will likely
still need to be 60 percent or higher for much of the area.  High
temperatures should more uniformly reach the lower 90s tomorrow,
with heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria. Will
hold off on issuing an advisory for now, as confidence not quite
high enough to justify advisory yet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Drier air still scheduled to arrive Sunday as ridging continues to
move westward. Ridge center will be over Alabama Sunday afternoon,
northern Mississippi on Monday, and near Tulsa by Wednesday. That
will be far enough west to allow another easterly wave to transit
the northern Gulf during the second half of the workweek.

Precipitable water values are expected to fall into the 1.6 to 1.8
range for the early part of the week, before rebounding to 2.25
inches on Wednesday. This will mean a decrease in areal coverage
of thunderstorms beginning on Sunday. Instantaneous areal coverage
probably won`t be much more than 20 percent or so on Sunday, with
12 hourly PoPs of 20 to 40 percent, which may be a bit high. For
Monday and Tuesday, convection should be suppressed even further,
with not much more than 20 percent for the day, if that much. By
Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances will increase into
the 40 to 60 percent range again.

With the drier weather for Sunday through Tuesday, high
temperatures will increase again. Highs are expected to be in the
mid 90s across most of the area on Sunday. The ridge being more
fully over the area Monday should allow highs in the upper 90s,
especially if surface winds maintain a northerly component.
Similar highs are expected on Tuesday. It should be noted that 100
degree temperatures aren`t out of the question either Monday or
Tuesday in a few areas. Pretty much the only question for Sunday
through Tuesday are what flavor of heat headlines are necessary.
Sunday should be almost entirely advisory criteria, but Monday and
Tuesday may necessitate Extreme Heat Warnings, especially along
the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. We would probably start
issuing some of those products tomorrow afternoon. The heat should
break with the arrival of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Center of weak low pressure is now somewhere near KLCH and
continuing to work westward. Low level southerly flow continues to
transport moisture northward into the area with scattered
SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR ceilings, IFR or lower visibilities and a
few wind gusts to 30 knots where there are direct impacts. Will
carry TEMPO at all terminals for the next few hours, but with the
impending loss of heating, expect a significant diminishing trend
over the next 2-3 hours. There wil be at least some potential for
low ceilings/visibilities around sunrise, but at present, the only
terminal that has restrictions mentioned is MVFR at KMCB. Expect
MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops at mid-morning. Question
then becomes how much SHRA/TSRA development we get tomorrow
afternoon. For now, have included TEMPO for tomorrow afternoon,
but that may be overstating things a bit. Most or all convection
tomorrow should dissipate by sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Earlier issuance included Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines
for the open waters until midnight CDT. Somewhat borderline for
the sounds, and did not carry there. Wind speeds should diminish
this evening, and then remain near or below 10 knots for much of
the remainder of the forecast period outside of thunderstorms.
Areal coverage of storms will be much lower beyond tomorrow
afternoon, with not much more than isolated storms Sunday through
Tuesday. The second half of the workweek next week will see more
widespread coverage of storms than the first half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  90  73  93 /  40  70   0  20
BTR  76  91  76  94 /  30  80   0  40
ASD  75  91  74  93 /  30  70  10  20
MSY  79  92  79  94 /  30  80  10  40
GPT  77  89  77  92 /  60  60  10  20
PQL  76  91  75  94 /  50  60  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW